I. The Problem with Naïve Expected-Value Sizing Consider a repeatable, positive-edge bet. The naïve instinct is to size it by maximizing expected wealth after a single round: E[W1] = W0 · [1 + f · (pb − q)] Where f is the fraction of bankroll wagered, p is win probability, q = 1−p, and b

Investment Thesis RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) is an aerospace and defense contractor whose earnings are shaped as much by procurement cycles and geopolitics as by traditional industrial fundamentals. The company’s exposure to sustainment programs, missile defense, and commercial aerospace aftermarket revenue positions it as a hybrid defense-industrial platform with multi-year cash-flow support rather than purely

Investment Thesis We maintain a Strategic Overweight stance on gold as the global macro regime continues to shift away from the conditions that characterized the prior decade. This view is informed from a regime-based allocation perspective rather than a near-term price forecast. Elevated sovereign debt burdens, persistent fiscal imbalances, and rising geopolitical fragmentation have materially